Ernie from the night bus

There is always a possibility that COVID19 is nothing but a damp squib which is no worse than normal flu. Checking through comments, I get the feeling that some people think that.

From what I see, this is not the case and I would urge all of you to take this seriously, especially those who are older or have current health issues (particularly breathing issues).

OK, so more people are dying of flu in a normal season, more people have been killed by their trousers yada yada yada.

Yes that’s true, but it isn’t the point.

Ok, COVID 19 kills possibly just 1% of victims with proper medical care. It may be far less depending on how many cases are undetected. The full story is not yet known.

This puts COVID 19 within range of a particularly bad flu which would be unlikely to be remarked upon in normal times.

That isn’t the point either.

Right now in Queensland there are only about 150 cases as I write this. Most of them will recover quickly and won’t have much discomfort at all.

That isn’t the point either.

The point is, the infection rate of COVID 19. It is highly contagious. That means that by the time cases are detected, there are lots of cases which are still undetected.

With 150 cases detected, are likely 2500 or so cases that as yet are undiscovered. Some will likely never be discovered as they won’t have any symptoms.

The problem is, that without drastic intervention, cases double every three or four days. That means that in four days max, there will be 5,000 cases. In eight days, there will be 10,000 and in twenty days’ time, there will be 80,000 people with COVID 19 in Queensland alone.

Now let’s revisit that mortality rate. With good hospital care, around 1% will die and around 20% will need hospitalisation and probably a ventilator.

That is around 16,000 people needing hospitalisation. Good luck if you are one of them. Without ventilators and hospital care, the death toll will be far higher than 1%.

This is what Italy found out the hard way after their newly imported workforce came back after Chinese New Year (allegedly). They are paying for it dearly now.

Governments are frantically trying to slow the spread of the virus to ‘spread the load’ because if we all got this Wu Flu over a period of a couple of years, it wouldn’t be much worse than normal flu.

Slowing the Wu Flu down is therefore imperative. The only way they can do this (apart from ‘social distancing’ and good hygiene) is to confine us all to our houses as China did.

Other countries are doing this, Australia will be no different.

Apart from the virus itself, this change in behaviour is wreaking havoc on the economy. Many businesses will fold which can leave us suddenly short of essentials like food and medicine.

Because of our fraudulent monetary system, banks are precarious at the best of times. The possibility of banking collapse is ever present but more so given the current disaster unfolding through the economy.

Thanks to crooked politicians, a collapsing bank is allowed to steal your money in what is euphemistically known as a ‘bail in.’

The upshot of all of this is that if you haven’t done so already, you should be preparing for some tough times ahead.

Begin stocking up on food which will last for a couple of months. Canned food, rice, pasta, frozen foods and take some cash out of the bank and keep it safe somewhere (assuming you have some spare).

Don’t panic buy, even at this stage, just get some each day and put it by. If it turns out that I am talking out of my behind, you won’t have lost much.

We will try to keep you up to date on issues if possible.

Keep your fingers crossed for a cure or a vaccine but don’t hold your breath (sorry, that was tasteless).

I hope I’m wrong on all of this, but I have a feeling that things are not going back to business as usual anytime soon.

Thank you for your support. We will keep on keeping on for as long as our butt points towards the ground.

Please try to remain civil in the comments section and respect the moderators. It  isn’t an easy job but remember that we wouldn’t have to moderate if you guys were moderate.

It’s a difficult time and the last thing we need are petty distractions. Play nice in the sandpit so we can all get along.

Harry