After watching part of the first debate between Trump and Biden, I was left with a real feeling of disappointment.
It seemed to be roughly a draw, which was fairly surprising as I was expecting Trump to really dominate. I have to say, however, that Joe Biden was far better than expected.
Some have suggested that he was assisted by drugs or technology – and he did refuse the checks which Trump wanted, but whether the Dems cheated again is anyone’s guess.
He also benefitted from a moderator who was clearly on his side. Yet, I have to say he was holding his own and Trump didn’t seem to get the sort of clear victory I had expected.
Someone who has a rather different spin on this, however, is Dan Bongino who posted a video of his take on the debate on the following YouTube video (hat tip to Big Boy Scotty for posting this in the comments section.
For those without the time to watch the whole thing, I will reprise Bongino’s opinions here.
Normal election cycles
go the same way. Each candidate has around 40% of faithful followers. These
guys won’t change their vote no matter what. Probably a bit more than half of
them will turn out to vote.
Then there are the independents who make up the remaining 20%.
Previously, the trick was to try to win over 11% or more of the independents, whilst not alienating your base. If you could do that, you would be over the line with 51% of the vote.
This election is very different. Trump has been such a polarising figure, that there are no longer 20% of undecided voters. Everyone in America either loves Trump or hates him.
So, where does that leave the campaign?
What Trump seems to have figured out, is that it is entirely pointless running after independents who don’t exist.
Instead, the game is to energise your own base, get every single one of them out on polling day. At the same time, he needs to ensure that Biden alienates his base so that they won’t bother to come out for him on the day.
Looking at the debate through this prism gives Trump’s strategy a completely different slant.
The first thing to remember, is that the only thing that can hurt a candidate is when they do something that people didn’t expect them to do.
For example, in 2016, a tape was released shortly before the election in which Trump joked about how, as a famous person, that he could grab a girl’s front bottom and she wouldn’t even mind.
A few weeks later, The Donald won almost every county in the nation, even the ultra-religious ones. Say what? How could that be?
The reason was, that Trump’s playboy history was well known. Nobody was really surprised that he would make such a crass joke. People who were going to vote for him, still voted for him. Those who hated him, hated him even more (if that is possible).
Ok, so fast forward to the 2020 debate with Joe Biden. Trump was bombastic, rude, aggressive and domineering. Joe Biden rose to the challenge surprisingly well and the two traded insults and got into numerous slanging matches.
At this point, I’m remembering my Great Aunt Nell’s wise words. “Never wrestle with a pig, because you will both get covered in fertiliser, but the pig will enjoy it.” (She didn’t actually use the word “fertiliser” btw).
Biden got down in the fertiliser and wrestled with Trump. Problem was, that Trump’s supporters at worst would forgive him, and at best were whooping and cheering him on.
Biden, on the other hand, has been desperately cultivating the image of himself as the “Anti-Trump”.
He tries to come across as calm, collected, sophisticated and Presidential. He accuses Trump of being crass, chaotic, rude and disrespectful.
I have heard numerous people expressing disgust at both candidates in the debate and the level to which both had sunk. None of those people were Trump supporters.
So, in rising to Trump’s challenge, Biden alienated himself from his more moderate base, whilst failing to do the same to Trump.
What Trump also managed to do, was to force Joe Biden to disavow policies which were dear to many of his supporters.
Biden is in a hole on this one, and not of his own making but Trump made sure to bury him in it.
The Democrat base is made up of mostly moderates with a smaller number of raving nutcase radicals.
Unfortunately, the radicals have the energy and are more likely to turn out to vote or even to work as foot soldiers.
Trump backed Joe into a corner where he disavowed the Green New Deal, even though he has endorsed it on his website.
“You’ve just lost the Left” mocked Trump the moment that came out of Joe’s mouth, and he may have been right. The Bernie Bros were stiffed in 2016 and they’ve been stiffed again in 2020. How much enthusiasm they will have for Sleepy Joe remains to be seen, but I’m picking not much.
Trump has also been working hard to show up Biden’s duplicity to his moderate base who are probably not that enthused by him anyway.
Maybe the ballot papers should simply give a choice of voting for Trump or against him. Few will really be that keen to elect Biden.
Given that Trump was fighting against the moderator as well as Biden, he did pretty well. That in itself may have gained him some sympathy with the remaining undecided voters of America (both of them).
Last time around, the moderators were caught out giving the questions to Hillary in advance (and still aren’t in jail).
We might expect that from CNN (Communist News Network), but to see Fox News (the only network with any sympathy whatsoever towards Trump) put in such a biased moderator should dispel any doubt that the media are 100% owned by the sleazy, swamp critters who loathe Trump and loathe the America that he stands for.
Just in case you think this is all baseless conjecture, bear in mind that the fake news MSM are now calling for an end to the debates. Do you really think they would do that if Biden had actually won the hearts and minds of the voting public?
I haven’t met too many people who supported Trump in 2016 but have since decided not to vote for him.
There are, of course, more illegal migrants and more dead voters who can be counted on to vote for creepy Joe regardless.
The question is, whether they will be able to get enough of them out of the graveyards to counter the growing number of black and Hispanic voters who have been quietly leaking off the Democrat plantation and into Trump land.
These guys aren’t wandering around the South side of Chicago in MAGA hats. Heck, they won’t even admit to the pollsters that they are voting for The Donald.
But, anecdotally at least, there are more and more of them, like this guy whose video doesn’t seem to show up if you search it in Youtube (may the fleas of a thousand camels infest their underpants).
This, is the Left’s worst nightmare.
Then, just in case you thought that this election was all too predictable, Trump gets Covid 19 a month out from the election.
I guess at least now, we will all be finding out whether Hydroxychloroquine works or not.
Somehow, I suspect Trump will deal with this, like he deals with everything else in life. He will grab it by the horns, bully it into submission and then kick it down the hallway.
Good luck Donald and get well soon,
So many of us are depending on you.